For whom the bellwether tolls

A high-stakes political showdown is brewing in St Elizabeth South Western, where incumbent Member of Parliament (MP) Floyd Green is facing a strong challenge from Black River High School teacher Miranda Wellington in the upcoming general election, as some Labourites withdraw their support for the incumbent.

Like the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) he represents, Green – the agriculture, fisheries and mining minister – is seeking a third consecutive term in office. But Wellington, the People’s National Party (PNP) standard-bearer, is mounting a campaign that has stirred debate across the traditionally unpredictable constituency – one known for its farming base and growing community tourism.

On a beach in Great Bay last Wednesday, four men debated the prospects of the race. Three backed the JLP, while one stood firm with the PNP. Though puzzled by the perceived closeness of the race as Green has been a good MP, they acknowledged Wellington as a formidable contender.

“Well, dem saying dem two candidates here deh pon a battleground, say it close [between] Green and the lady deh, Miranda, for she’s a good challenger, but I still feel Mr Green a go take it,” 75-year-old Trevor Parchment said.

The JLP has won eight of the 15 parliamentary elections contested for St Elizabeth South Western since it was first established in 1959. The PNP has won the remaining seven.

Historically, the party that wins the seat forms Government, establishing it as a bellwether constituency.

“I don’t know why it’s so close because Green work. I don’t think we shoulda so close because this ya Government put in the work,” Trevor said, while his cousin, Kearn Parchment, who identified himself as a Comrade, interrupted, declaring that Wellington would win.

PNP stronghold

He would not give reasons for his prediction, even while sitting in a PNP stronghold.

Seated on their verandah in Sandy Bank, cousins Karen Ebanks and Dahlia Moxam pledged their support to Green, calling him the best MP to represent the constituency.

Moxam, who is domiciled in the United States, said the constituents would be making a “grave mistake” if they were to boot Green from office, comparing such a possibility to the re-election of Donald Trump.

“The country would be very stupid to change who is in leadership now. Where I’m coming from, we tested it and you see what we’re getting,” said Moxam, pointing to Trump’s return to the White House three months ago.

“Why would you want to change when there is so much progress? I see progress when I come here. Your health system needs improvement, but it’s much better than it used to be, I tell you,” she said, getting a nod of agreement from Ebanks.

Moxam praised the improvements made to the Lacovia Police Station, noting that security in the country had seen an overall improvement.

Despite their family ties to Wellington, neither woman was swayed.

“Nope, I’m not voting for her. She should switch party,” Moxam said.

not changing from Floyd

Ebanks buttressed those sentiments.

“I’m not changing from Floyd for her either,” the elderly woman said.

But some, like Flagaman onion farmer Henry Davis, have become disenchanted. A lifelong Labourite, Davis said Green has failed to deliver on promises, particularly around irrigation and domestic water. He voted PNP for the first time in the 2024 local government elections and plans to do so again.

“I want water, both domestic and irrigation,” he told The Sunday Gleaner.

“Him tired fi promise we and we nuh get it. I was green from ever since, but I switch in the last election. Him (Green) a go win still, but not by me. Him not getting my vote, but him strong,” said Davis, who also farms scallion and watermelon.

Still, he was the odd one out in the group of mostly men, who were busy reassembling an open-back delivery van.

“We staying green!” one man shouted.

Among the crew were Davis’ brother John and sister-in-law Annmarie Davis. The two are friends of Wellington’s, singing her praises, but said their votes will remain with Green.

“Floyd Green all the way. I love ‘Randa, but it rough on her side. She going have a hard fight with Green,” Annmarie said.

Her husband John was more pointed. For him, Green has facilitated the rehabilitation of “a lot of” farm roads, while ensuring the consistent supply of fertiliser and seeds.

“Me a farmer and him do so much for us. Me a onion farmer and him provide us with seeds, fertiliser and all bags to put the onions in and it’s for every farmer not just a few. Him do it through RADA (Rural Agricultural Development Authority),” he said.

He countered his brother’s argument against Green, noting that “there is a massive irrigation scheme on the way”.

He was referring to the Flagaman irrigation project for St Elizabeth – a planned US$200 million scheme aimed at providing water for over 5,000 farmers in the area. The project proposes to take water from the Black River to irrigate the plains of the parish.

However, he admitted that potable water flows through pipes only twice weekly at night.

Further north in Pedro Cross, support for Wellington runs deeper. Among a group by a fruit vendor, Boswell Brown voiced frustration.

“We hardly see him (Green) and don’t want to see him either,” he told The Sunday Gleaner. “We need a change now, man. We can’t manage him no more. We not seeing the progress weh them a talk ‘bout down here so. We want to see Miranda elevate and go inna the House and we take it from deh so because we know she a go work,” he said.

In Parottee, Wellington had similar support but this time from longtime Labourites.

JLP loyalty had shifted

Actively looking for customers to transport to Pelican Bar, fishermen Jimmy Bennett and Evan Bailey said their long-standing JLP loyalty had shifted.

The two — who also discussed international politics about Ibrahim Traoré’s transformation of Burkina Faso and the latest developments involving US President Trump with The Sunday Gleaner – are dissatisfied with Green’s stewardship.

They described Wellington as present and connected, often fishing or sailing with them.

In the years prior, she lived in Parottee Hill, the two claimed.

“This area, from me grow up and have sense and understand it, is a Labourite stronghold. But it seems like Miranda a take it pon a level and down a different path inna this politics thing,” Bailey said.

“So, right about now, if Floyd Green should lose I think him know why because Miranda deh pon the ground fi the better. Yeah, man. Miranda a galang good with talking with the people. I not saying that him affi bring money come dash weh or whatever, but we nuh see Floyd Green a galang with nothing too tough,” he noted, adding that he has voted twice for the MP.

Both men reminisced about former MP Derrick Sangster, who entered Parliament on a JLP ticket in 1980, mentioning that “him make Parottee look like Christmas”, bringing in “loan boat” that fishermen used to establish themselves and build their houses.

“Me never see that happen with [Christopher] Tufton and Floyd Green. I don’t think you need to hear from me which one of them me would really vote for this term. Me a try the woman. Me have luck with women; me a try the woman,” said Bailey.

He told The Sunday Gleaner that ahead of every general election, PNP stalwart K.D. Knight telephones to ascertain the pulse on the ground. This time, Bailey said he did not disappoint him with his response.

More PNP in Parottee

“Me tell him it look good. Him coming down to have a drink soon. There is more PNP in Parottee this time around,” Bailey said, with Bennett co-signing his every word.

Among a group of family and friends cracking tamarind in Brompton, an elderly woman, who gave her name as Barbara, spoke unfiltered.

Declaring in no uncertain terms that she would be voting for Wellington, she said she has known the teacher since the late Donald Buchanan ruled the roost in St Elizabeth South Western.

“Me not voting for no Labourite,” she declared emphatically.

Her granddaughter, who declined to give her name, described the mood as “tense”, but Barbara fired back, noting that it was only tense because her granddaughter is a supporter of the JLP. She was alone among the group of Comrades.

A heated debate ensued with neither relenting on their support for their party. Still, the group tried feverishly but unsuccessfully to get the young woman, one of Wellington’s former students, to change her mind.

“I not leaving nuh land give nuh Labourite,” Barbara said, flashing a wry smile.

“Barbara, anytime I predict the election it goes how I say it. I did tell unuh say Oneil a go win and Oneil win the councillor. Miranda affi come good fi beat Floyd,” the young woman retorted.

On the periphery of the discussion, livestock farmer Conroy Forbes tended to his cows. He is a long-time supporter of the PNP but has not voted since 2002.

“The ground seem it a go red, but boy, the Labourite them in deh nuff still, me a tell you that. Yes, man. Them deh yah nuff. Them deh here heavy. Me a PNP still, but me nuh vote fi them in how many years. Me stop vote fi years. Me nuh believe inna politics again.

“Things tough, you know, and we nuh see Floyd Green. Him only pree that deh side (south of the constituency). We nuh see him this side, so this election a go tough. The two party want to win. It a go tight bad. It a go tough, tough, tough,” he said, while admitting he does not know Wellington.

kimone.francis@gleanerjm.com