Trafigura 'duppy' and Bruce's love-in

Ian Boyne, Contributor

It was not a bad week for the Jamaica Labour Party and its embattled leader, Bruce Golding. Moving from the disastrous week preceding, the Labourites held their love-in at the National Arena on Sunday, pulling out the big crowds and, reportedly, tears of joy from a highly-appreciative leader who needed all the love he could get.

The media had speculated that the crowds would have been disappointing, that a number of Labourites might stay away because of disillusionment with their leader, what with the fall-out with the two wests - Western Jamaica and Western Kingston. Others hinted that there could be some kind of wild west of a conflict at the arena as fuming factions of Labourites might square off because of recent internal elections. Nothing of the sort.

Labourites came together to give an unmistakable and tangible show of support to their leader, whom rumours said was considering resignation because of all the national pressure he was coming under as well as, allegedly, the lack of support from certain party functionaries. But the 67th conference of the Jamaica Labour Party would have none if it. The message was clear: It was all Bruce - and any potential challenger's neck on the noose. Anyone or closet Bradyite who had nurtured any such thought before Sunday would now have to "figet it".

Even on-again, off-again admirer, Mark Wignall, who up to conference Sunday had written another anti-Golding column, followed up with a column on Thursday gushing, 'Golding Scored Big at JLP Conference'. Columnist Michael Burke beside him said of Golding's presentation, "Bruce Golding made an excellent speech, Michael Manley-style." The media can never seem to get the balance.

Golding's speech was not the rousing, inspiring, strategically on-target presentation some in the media have made it out to be, and it was certainly not one of his best. But it was good enough that he avoided all the important blunders and pitfalls; that he did not crudely attack the Opposition and could not be accused of arrogance or triumphalism. He also made some choice emotive and strategic points which would have resonated beautifully with that over 40 per cent undecided voters whom he told the party they could not win without. The point that parliamentarians should be jailed for not disclosing their assets, and that it was manifestly unfair for them to walk free while the man who steals the mango or the bicycle was imprisoned, would have gone over big with both partisans and independents. He certainly commanded the headlines.

He displayed the requisite humility and contrition over 'Dudusgate', which political opponents would say, of course, was purely contrived and hypocritical. His statement, "I am a public servant, not a perfect servant" was a profound point which bears serious philosophical and practical discussion.

Again, detractors would be incensed at his "gall" and "nerve" to make such a statement after what they consider his unforgivable transgressions. Some - many of whom write to me - are prepared to hear nothing else from Bruce Golding but the announcement of his own resignation. They have a mighty long wait for that. Indeed, if they had paid even casual attention to his speech, they would hear the clear clarion call for preparation for 2012.

This was, unofficially, the conference to kick off election 2012. He started by making the important point that Labourites would somehow have to find a way to reach independent voters, for they can't win without them. It's a point they had better kept in mind as they traverse the political minefield.

So far things are looking up a little. The talk all weekend was about the Spanish Town duppy and this week a STAR headline tells us that another duppy might have killed a murderer some days ago. Well, yet another deadly duppy has also appeared to haunt - and perhaps kill the People's National Party's (PNP's) electoral chances - the Trafigura duppy.

Audley Shaw, whose stock-in-trade in his Opposition days was muckraking and uncovering scandals, was back to his old habits at conference, giving a more emotionally and polemically rousing speech than Golding and revealing ahead of the PNP's knowing that they were soon to be in court to give sworn statements on Trafigura.

The Dutch have sent a wonderful Christmas gift to the JLP. It's a well-needed gift. Some Labourites must be saying to Bruce, "God naw sleep" and "God never give a man more than him can bear!" Because, as I said last week, the hot potato political issues in Jamaica don't just concern the economy, but issues of integrity, ethics and trust. Trafigura is just what the JLP needs at this time. Announcing big National Housing Trust benefits is great and will score some points, but that's not enough when people don't trust you and think you are irredeemably corrupt and in bed with criminals - while your opponents are ethical, trustworthy people just waiting to serve.

If now they can be convinced that there is 'no better herring, no-better barrel', then no one has any high horse to ride. If the PNP could maintain the morality gap over the JLP, that could go some way to swinging the elections with independents, even though the economic determinists say it's really economic issues which decide elections.

But people can be persuaded to vote against their own economic interests for ideological reasons, and if the PNP maintains a moral high ground while the JLP is perceived as being in the ethical gutter with gunmen and murderers, a buoyant economy might not be enough.

Damp squib

Lambert Brown predicts that Trafigura will turn out to be "a damp squib", but if it does not, the PNP will have to work much harder than it seemed a few weeks ago. At least the Manatt Commission of Enquiry can get some competition for the headlines.

The people have already said, according to the CVM-Don Anderson polls, that the Manatt, Phelps and Phillips issue is worse than Trafigura, but depending on what comes out in open court they could change their minds. Of course, the PNP is far more skilled at communications, public relations and perceptions management than the amateurish JLP, and so its damage-control capabilities - and strength in the media - will mitigate things significantly. We will just have to see how things play out in court. But what is undeniable is that the JLP has won some time for a breather. They had better manage that well, for the PNP is formidable.

I think that's what these internal challenges in the JLP are all about: They are about preparing for 2012.

Daryl Vaz's election as general secretary would make a major difference in the JLP's fortunes. Whatever you think of Daryl Vaz, you have to admit, if you know anything about him, that he is an indefatigable, relentless worker, a man of action who gets things done, and a master fund-raiser. Daryl Vaz is one of the most highly driven and compulsively ambitious politicians in Jamaica. He has faced so many challenges in his own personal life and has fought them off with a courage and tenacity that even detractors are compelled to admire. I wouldn't want Daryl Vaz as an opponent in any contest.

Strategically, Karl Samuda was wise not to retain the position. And while I reject G2K's backward ageist prejudice against people like Karl Samuda - yet they have endorsed the 75-year-old Mike Henry - Daryl's strengths would be what the JLP needs at this time. He also has known liabilities, of course, but at least in terms of his personality, he seems to be making a determined effort to be more composed and less irascible.

Politically astute man

Daryl will do whatever it takes to get him his end results, and he is a very politically astute man.

Don't watch Mike Henry's age. He is an older version of Daryl. He is a tough, determined and resolute - some say ruthless - campaigner, a man-in-the-trenches warrior. Ken Baugh has done wisely to follow Samuda's lead: finally, some JLP leaders are putting the party ahead of their personal ambitions.

Henry, in addition to his legendary strengths, has one major ammunition in this war chest - political pork - which is how that Chinese road money is being described by political watchers. As the PM said on his radio programme last week, unlike other road programmes that deal with highways, arterial roads, farm roads etc., the Jamaica Infrastructure Development Programme deals with every striking thing. That's a lot of power - and political clout - in the hands of Mike Henry.

Crucial factor

Money is crucial in who wins elections, once there is no major ideological/corruption issue or economic collapse. Money and organisation - that is what Mike and Daryl have. But there are also two other pivotal figures - Robert Montague and James Robertson.

If I were a PNP politician, I would be praying every night - and fasting regularly - that the charges against James Robertson can be proven.

If the JLP loses James Robertson, it would have lost one of the finest, shrewdest and most redoubtable political organisers since the days of D.K. Duncan in the 1970s. (I make no political endorsement, only state the facts). James, Daryl and Montague played a major part in cutting the ground under the hitherto unconquerable Eddie Seaga and in the ascension of Bruce Golding, and they were also crucial to the 2007 JLP victory. Bobby as deputy chairman would be a headache to the PNP.

The JLP might be losing big in the media, but it is quietly planning to take the streets and fields, for, as P.J. Patterson will tell you, we must never assume that the issues which consume mediacrats and the chattering classes is what consume the man on the street and that farmer in Gimme-me-bit. Media and civil society are always suspected of being biased to the PNP, and Wignall repeats that common perception in last Thursday's column, so the JLP can well concede those grounds. But the election of Vaz, Henry and Montague, added to that of the very personable and debonair Gleaner Man of the Year, Chris Tufton, would signal that the PNP had better go back to the war room.

Ian Boyne is a veteran journalist. Feedback may be sent to ianboyne1@yahoo.com or columns@gleanerjm.com