EDITORIAL - An emergent odd couple

Should the more intense of the negotiations on the weekend in the United Kingdom result in a formal agreement, a likely coalition government formed by David Cameron's Conservatives (the Tories) and Nick Clegg's centre-left Liberal Democrats is in the offing.

The centre-right Tories won most votes and seats (306) in last Thursday's general election but not an outright majority. So both Mr Cameron and head of the Labour Party, and still prime minister, Gordon Brown, who finished second in the elections with the 258 seats, have been courting the Lib Dems (who got 57 seats) with the hope of securing a power-sharing deal. A party/coalition would need at least 326 seats to form a government.

Any marriage between the Tories and Lib Dems may be short-lived, however, given their different perspectives on economic management and social issues, including civil liberties.

electoral reform

For now, the Lib Dems are insisting on electoral reform allowing for proportional representation rather than the current first-past-the-post system.

In the 2005 general election for example, Labour got only 35 per cent of the votes cast, but 55 per cent of the seats. The second-place Conservatives got 32 per cent of the vote but only 30 per cent of the seats and the Liberal Democrats got 22 per cent of the vote and only 10 per cent of the seats. Fringe parties picked up the rest of the votes and seats.

Mr Clegg is reported to have said he would support the Conservatives if his party is offered concessions on reforming the current voting system.

So far, the most Mr Cameron has been able to offer is an all-party committee of inquiry on political and electoral reform. His own party is opposed to him offering anything more.

In the meantime, there are big issues facing the country. The national budget is moving towards a 12 per cent deficit and there is a massive debt load. Analysts are already predicting big tax rises and cuts to health and education services in the short to medium term. For now, Britain is not in the same financial straits as Greece or Portugal, but when the markets react to uncertainty or even in panic over future prospects, the ripple effects will be felt in our part of the world. The uncertainty is neither good for them nor for us.

observe the developments

Politically, we in Jamaica should observe these developments with more than passing interest. The recent proposal to have an odd number of seats in Parliament would prevent the possibility of a tie in our general elections and therefore provide a clear winner. Were we to have a recurrence, however, of the winning party just barely making it home in seat counts as happened in the 2007 elections, the potential for constant politicking and instability looms large.

We neither have a third party strong enough to play a significant role in power-sharing talks nor a culture of cooperation that would allow for a practical coalition. But given our recent election developments, we may need to consider our best options in the event of a 31-32 seat count under the proposed 63 seats in Parliament and the political maturity that it will take to prevent a stalemate.

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