Curtis Ward | Evolution of European geopolitical and international security leadership

The internal dynamics aside, the European Union and the United Kingdom (EU+UK) are evolving as a major participant in global leadership–as a collective rather than as a unipolar focused power structure.

The United States which sat on the pinnacle of global leadership, particularly since the end of the Cold War in 1991, has ceded leadership under the Trump presidency. This new phenomenon – the slide from global leadership – began during the first Trump presidency. But Trump’s chaotic and shambolic foreign policy missteps caught Europe off-guard. Europe was not ready to fill the void. European countries resisted but the resistance was disorganized and sporadic.

Government leaders around the world had come to rely almost exclusively on US leadership. Now, better prepared, after the first 11 months of the second Trump administration, the transition to European leadership is well underway, and inevitable. Europe’s response to Ukraine is an example of the new leadership realities–shifting geopolitical and international security paradigms.

REALIGNMENT OF GLOBAL POWER

The balancing of power centres now lies between Europe — not as an appendage of NATO but as a power among peers — China, Russia, and the United States. Russia’s military aggression against Ukraine proved to be a catalyst for Europe’s new geopolitical and security evolution. Russia now has to contend with a strengthened, focused, empowered and determined Europe.

Whether Europe will expand its influence globally to compete with or confront the realities of China’s global economic and military presence must be considered. This will have new meaning for modern Africa, Asia, and Latin America and Caribbean (LAC) countries.

Europe to be effective, particularly in Africa, must first rebuild trust. That would normally be a tall mountain to climb—overcoming the vestiges of colonialism and post-colonial exploitation. Embracing reparations is an important step in the process, and Europe must quickly find accommodation. A positive response to the call for reparation instead of dancing around the issue is imperative.

DOMINANCE WITHOUT OBLIGATION

America’s renewed pursuit of a unipolar world has hastened its leadership demise. Ironically, this runs counter to what is often propagated about Trump administration’s isolationist ideology. But American isolationism is a fiction. Trump administration ideology is isolationist only in terms of responsibility. It is about dominance without the costs.

President Trump’s ‘America First’ foreign policy, and pursuit of regime change in Venezuela and employing illegal means to do so, including extrajudicial killings and probably war crimes by the U.S. military, has created an impetus for African, Asian, and LAC governments to view the EU+UK in a better light. Upholding international law and norms and maintaining international order is imperative for many countries in Africa, Asia, and LAC. Europe leads on these important issues. It’s ironic, European governments also want to see Maduro go, but not by military force.

Dealing with the consequences of climate change and global warming— existential threats for several countries—which are not only denied by the Trump administration but whose deliberate actions seek to sabotage a global response to this danger, is another European imperative. The EU+UK’s leadership on global warming and climate change resonates with these governments. Europe must extend its collective leadership through massive funding increase for climate change resilience of affected countries.

There are certain issues and actions which cannot wait for a future U.S. president to change course. Some of these issues are at a tipping point and the implications and effects are either irreversible or, if not staunched now, the impending damage will take years, if ever, to overcome.

REGIME CHANGE IN VENEZUELA

President Trump embarked upon regime change in Venezuela during his first presidency. He failed. President Trump took the Obama administration’s sanctions on Venezuela intended to coerce behaviour change on human rights violations and anti-democracy and rule of law transgressions by the Maduro government, and pursued a failed policy of regime change. This time around the Trump administration seems set to go to war to remove Maduro from power. But the Trump administration has not been forthright in its intent. At least not until recently when it became evident to the whole world. Yet most of what is happening now was predictable several months ago. Most turned a blind eye to what was happening, yet the possible outcomes and consequences were obvious.

The pretext of going after narco-traffickers did not square with the actions being taken by the US military. Contrary to Trump administration’s propaganda, U.S. collaboration with Caribbean governments successfully pursued drug interdiction in the Caribbean Sea.

The US Coast Guard had successes interdicting, apprehending and bringing narco-traffickers to justice. Tons of illegal drugs were seized and destroyed. The Shiprider Agreement between the US and Caribbean governments worked extraordinarily well. Yet, the Trump administration switched from the Coast Guard as the lead drug interdiction agency in the Caribbean Sea to the military carrying out intercept, kill and destroy operations against alleged drug traffickers in small boats off the Venezuelan Caribbean coast and Colombian Pacific coast.

At the time of writing, more than 100 alleged drug traffickers have been summarily killed – extrajudicial killings. Two oil tankers leaving Venezuela have been seized by the US military. The US military on orders from the Secretary of Defense has been accused of murder and possible war crimes. But that’s for future determination.

EUROPEAN POWER BACK TO THE FUTURE

Back to European leadership. The EU+UK announcement of $105 billion in military aid to Ukraine for 2026 is a game changer which will go a far way to determining Ukraine’s future. And the European agreement on security guarantee for Ukraine – dragging the US into agreement – is indicative of Europe’s new assertiveness. The EU+UK demonstrated a clear willingness to lead backed by necessary financial commitment.

This exceeds the $85 billion approved in the US 2026 budget for Ukraine. Combined, this level of financial support and the European-backed security guarantee, empowers Ukraine to go into 2026 with confidence to protect its sovereignty and territorial integrity from the Russian assault. It puts pressure on Putin to negotiate and it reduces US influence over the outcome. It’s possible that the Trump administration’s preoccupation with regime change in Venezuela may have given Europe the opening they needed to lead on European issues. Europe seized the opportunity and opened the European Union to future Ukraine membership. A victory for Ukraine and for Europe. A new paradigm in global leadership.

Curtis Ward is former ambassador of Jamaica to the United Nations, with special responsibility for Security Council affairs. Send feedback to columns@gleanerjm.com