Byron Blake | Hurricane Melissa: lessons for policymakers

Hurricane Melissa passed Jamaica by arguably the shortest and least expensive route. Yet, the destruction and deaths must be seen to be believed. It boggles the mind to think of Melissa tracking down the middle of the island, as many of the early models had predicted.

Many will speak of its history-making character, others of our genius in having organised appropriate catastrophic insurance, others about our resilience and capacity to recover, and still others about what had, or should have been done, before the hurricane made landfall.

Important, yes, but those are not the issues that disturb Caribbean technical advisers to our core. Many of us from the Caribbean, indeed the alliance of small island developing states, have been warning and urging action since 1989, with global warming around 0.5 °C, to head off this time. Even now, we are concerned whether the message has been received by Caribbean leaders. And, if it has, whether they will take the actions necessary to force the global action so desperately needed? We are cognisant that even with the implementation of the correct decision today, the level of global warming already reached will ensure that these catastrophic events continue for several years to come.

The call to hold global warming below 1.5 °C above preindustrial levels for the sustainability of the global economy and survival of small islands was made in the RIO Declaration of 1992 and reinforced in the Barbados Plan of Action (BPOA) of 1994. Following a cynically calculated diversion by developed countries in Copenhagen in 2009, there was again agreement at COP 15 in Paris in 2015 to pursue the 1.5 °C target. The industrialised countries committed to providing plans to reduce their emissions.

Yet, nine years later, in 2024, the target was breached, with warnings by the Secretary General of the United Nations that it could exceed 2.0 °C by 2030. Such levels guarantee hurricanes like Melissa (October at 185 mph), Beryl (June 2024), Milton (2024), and Dorian (2019). Four Category 5 hurricanes in six years, with three in the last 2 years. This frequency of major storms has never been observed in the history of Atlantic hurricanes.

The successive annual increases in global temperatures from 2018 to 2024 were never observed either. Global leaders met under the auspices of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP) in each of those years. In each COP, the major polluters skilfully avoided any decision committing them to specific action despite strong statements by SIDS leaders on the vulnerability of their states.

Uncharacteristically, we can find no record of a strong statement by Jamaica at any of those crucial COPs.

WHAT NEXT?

Jamaica and the other SIDS are literally the canary in the coal mine. Their people are now dying from the consequences of increased warming. Their cultural heritage is being obliterated (Black River and Falmouth are two of the oldest towns in Jamaica). Much of their history and cultural artefacts are gone. Similar situations have occurred in the Maldives and Maui, albeit from tsunami and fire, respectively.

Jamaica, Caribbean, and other SIDS have been reacting to these occurrences as isolated events rather than focusing on the trends and patterns and their cumulative impacts. Category 5 Beryl in June, the earliest in history, would, for example, encourage early preparatory activities, while Melissa in October, the latest in history, would suggest continuous activity over 5 to 6 months. That is a level of budgetary demand, every year, that few countries could or should be required to bear, especially for costs towards which they make little contribution.

At another level, these countries have been seduced by the major polluters and the multilateral financial institutions they control to believe that low-cost loans, together with new imported technologies and building systems, will address the challenges. Fallacy. Few buildings can withstand the wind force of two Category 5 systems and the undermining effect of the volume of water from such systems. The centuries-old structures of Black River proved that. Further, any financing attracting a positive interest is a bad investment for projects that will be wiped out in a few years.

We should also think about the mental and other psychological effects of back-to-back Category 5 hurricanes on adults and, more so, children. These effects are incalculable. Some might not manifest for years. When the trauma of the hurricanes is added to the prolonged period of confinement, period without electricity and external communication, the closure of schools, and the recent experience of COVID-19, we will begin to appreciate what disasters that might be waiting to surprise us.

LAST STAND AT COP 30

The Caribbean Community, led by Jamaica, failed to use its combined weight, along with that of other SIDS, at the 80th United Nations General Assembly in September to seek commitments to address the existential threat from climate change.

COP 30 in Belém celebrates 30 years since the implementation of the UNFCCC and, ironically, the achievement of a 0.9°C increase in global warming. Warming with full knowledge.

Prime Minister Holness must lead a militant CARICOM delegation into Belém with videos of his survey of the devastation caused by Hurricane Melissa, the price Jamaica has paid for global wilful indulgence. The delegation should also be armed with videos from Hurricane Beryl as it moved across the Caribbean from St Vincent and the Grenadines to Jamaica and beyond.

With that ammunition, the Caribbean must make its last stand. No more obfuscation by friends or foes. Members can no longer work collaboratively in a global community in which key members are knowingly and deliberately causing their demise.

That will not be an easy decision, but leaders did not seek office to make easy decisions.

Ambassador Byron Blake is former deputy permanent representative of Jamaica to the United Nations and former assistant secretary general of CARICOM. Send feedback to columns@gleanerjm.com.