Editorial | Preparing for earthquakes

In the event it was needed, Jamaicans last Saturday were again reminded that they live in an active earthquake zone.

A magnitude 4.9 earthquake, whose epicentre was 17 kilometres northwest of Yallahs, St Thomas, in the island’s southeast, was mostly felt in the island’s eastern and central parishes, as well as the parishes of Trelawny and St Ann in the north. There was a substantial shake, although there was no reported damage to buildings or injuries to people.

While considered moderate on the scale of earthquakes, last week’s tremor was on the uppermost range of those recorded over the past three years, though well behind the 7.3- and 7.2-magnitude quakes felt, respectively, in August 2021 and January 2020, according to data on the website of the Earthquake Unit of The University of the West Indies (UWI), Mona. However, it was equivalent to the 4.9-magnitude tremor of January 29, 2020.

These numbers do not specifically predict anything, except that, experts have warned, Jamaica will, at some time, experience a major earthquake, perhaps rivalling the one of 1907, which has been estimated at 9.5 on the Richter scale. It caused major destruction of property, especially in Kingston, and killed more than 1,000 people.

MITIGATING THE RISKS

The larger point is that while Jamaica (the island records more than 200, mostly moderate, earthquakes a year) cannot predict when the next big one will happen, it can prepare as best as it can for the event.

As is widely known, there are two primary ways to prepare for and mitigate the possible impact of a major quake.

First, earthquake preparedness has to be a key part of disaster preparedness planning, as happens for hurricanes and related events, such as flooding. Citizens have to know what to do in such events.

Unfortunately, that does not appear to be the case, as this newspaper noted in February in the aftermath of the devastating earthquake in Turkey and Syria that killed tens of thousands of people. While it may have relief protocols and its staff and direct volunteers perhaps know what they will be required to do if an earthquake strikes, it is not our sense that the Office of Disaster Preparedness and Emergency Management has an aggressive, ongoing public education campaign to sensitise Jamaicans on how they should respond. There are no regular earthquake simulations.

Mounting public information campaigns and performing rescue drills at offices and homes are of greater importance these days, given the rapid growth recently of medium- and high-rise buildings, especially in the Kingston metropolitan area. Indeed, trying to escape from the 10th floor of a building in the midst of a catastrophe is not the same as attempting to rush out of a bungalow. People should be told regularly how this should be done, or if at all it is advisable. And if not, what are the alternatives.

However, the more important factor in mitigating the risks of collapsing buildings is ensuring as little as possible of that happens. That means designing, engineering and constructing buildings in a manner that they are less likely to crumble in earthquakes.

REGULATORY OVERSIGHT LAX

Enforcing that is, in large part, the obligation of the public bureaucracy, which, hopefully, pays keen attention to the reminders constantly sent by the island’s seismic events.

In the aftermath of February’s Turkey earthquake, many bureaucrats and people in the construction sector were arrested. They will face the courts.

In recent decades, Turkey experienced a boom in the building of high-rise apartments, ironically to help meet a housing shortage that was exacerbated by previous earthquakes. Officials have now been accused of taking bribes to approve the skirting of building codes, and many developers are said to have flouted the requirements of their building permits. Many homes were therefore more vulnerable when the quake hit.

Five years ago, Jamaica passed a new building law, which ostensibly strengthened construction requirements. However, many of the regulations that are to underpin this legislation are not yet in place.

Further, as several cases brought to the courts by citizens have highlighted, the permit-granting process for construction, as well as regulatory oversight, are often lax. And in some instances, developers run roughshod over dissenters or exploit legal loopholes to get their way. Add to this the inventory of older buildings that were not designed with earthquakes in mind.

Notwithstanding the recency of the building law, there are increasing calls, including by Simon Mitchell, a professor of seismology at UWI, Mona, for a review of the existing codes. Similarly, architect and campaigner Patricia Green has promoted a massive stress-testing of buildings.

“We can’t predict [when the next big earthquake will happen], but we must be ready from now,” Professor Mitchell said.

We agree!